Petar Juršić: ideas and stories

Milei: inflation and poverty

6 min read

Milei cut inflation from 211 to 31 percent, and poverty went up, down and up again

Hook

Annual inflation fell from 211.4% (Dec 2023) to 31.5% (Dec 2025). Poverty went from 52.9% (H1 2024) down to 28.2% (H2 2025) and back up to 32.3% (H1 2026).

Claim

Both sides’ numbers are real and both leave things out. All figures as of 2026-11-04. Poverty figures are for the 31 urban areas INDEC surveys, not the whole country.

INDEC figures (opened on indec.gob.ar, official):

  • CPI, annual: 211.4% in 2023, monthly 25.5% in December 2023. 31.5% in 2025, monthly 2.8% in December 2025. September 2026: 1.9% in the month, 33.4% over twelve months, 23.6% since January (released 13 Oct 2026; the October figure is due in mid-November, so 33.4% is the latest as of 2026-11-04).
  • CPI December 2024: 2.7% in the month, 117.8% for 2024. Reported by Cronista and Cadena 3 citing INDEC; the INDEC report itself was not opened.
  • Poverty, persons: 52.9% (H1 2024), 38.1% (H2 2024), 31.6% (H1 2025), 28.2% (H2 2025), 32.3% (H1 2026). Extreme poverty: 18.1%, 8.2%, 6.9%, 6.3%, 7.5%. In H1 2026 that is 9,729,000 people below the line in the surveyed areas.
  • INDEC itself says there is no significant change in poverty compared with the same half a year earlier (H1 2025 31.6% against 32.3%); the rise is against H2 2025 (+4.1 points). Compared with the previous half, income per person rose 11.5% while the baskets rose 21.4% (food) and 19.6% (total).
  • Unemployment 7.9% in Q2 2026 (INDEC, 17 Sep 2026, via Bloomberg Línea and Perfil; INDEC said the one-year change was not statistically significant). Al Jazeera calls it the highest since 2021. Informal work rose from 43.2% to 45%.

Supporters’ side:

  • Inflation lowest since 2017 (Buenos Aires Herald, Jan 2026). September 2026 at 1.9% was welcomed by the presidential spokesperson as “a good number compared with where we have come from” (Buenos Aires Times).
  • Spending cut by 30% against the previous year, ministries eliminated, subsidies removed (Al Jazeera, Dec 2024).
  • Poverty 28.2% in H2 2025 was the lowest since H1 2018. President Milei posted “POVERTY CONTINUES TO DECLINE” (Herald, 31 Mar 2026).
  • Country risk index fell from about 2,000 to about 750 (JP Morgan, Al Jazeera, Dec 2024).

Critics’ side:

  • Poverty jumped from about 40% (H1 2023) to 52.9% in H1 2024, the largest jump in two decades (Al Jazeera). Extreme poverty 18.1%.
  • The fall in poverty may be partly a statistics effect: the UCA Social Debt Observatory said “around three-quarters of the drop in the levels since 2023 may respond to a statistical effect”; INDEC workers’ representatives said the president’s figures “are not correct” (Herald). INDEC has used a new price basket since February 2026; the CEPA think tank (critical of the government) estimates the old method would have added about 11% to cumulative inflation since Dec 2023 (Herald).
  • Poverty rose again in H1 2026; the UCA forecast 35% by year end (Al Jazeera, 25 Sep 2026).
  • Average real wages are still below their December 2023 level (Al Jazeera, Sep 2026). I did not open an INDEC wage release for this. CEPA estimates a real fall of 18.5% for registered wages Nov 2023 to Jun 2026; that is a critic’s estimate, not INDEC’s.
  • Annual inflation has crept back up from its low: the 31.5% in December 2025 is not the current rate; 33.4% in September 2026.
  • Disapproval among lower-income respondents (up to about $650 a month) near 70% in AtlasIntel’s September 2026 survey (Al Jazeera).

What cannot be shown: how much of the 2024 poverty jump was the devaluation versus the cuts, how much of the inflation fall came from cuts versus a strong peso, and how much of the poverty fall is real versus method.

Story

A soup kitchen manager who sees demand surge is the other half of a falling inflation figure. Al Jazeera (Dec 2024) reports surging demand at food centres without figures; no named person is used here.

Sources

Check before posting

  • INDEC wage index and unemployment tables not opened; wages rest on Al Jazeera and CEPA.
  • December 2024 CPI rests on press citing INDEC.
  • Resolved 2026-11-04: INDEC poverty series (H1 2024 52.9, H2 2024 38.1, H1 2025 31.6, H2 2025 28.2, H1 2026 32.3), CPI Dec 2023, Dec 2025, Sep 2026. Corrected: “about 50% by December 2024” was wrong, INDEC H2 2024 was 38.1%; the Al Jazeera “dipped to 50%” was not an INDEC figure. “Unemployment highest since 2021” is Al Jazeera’s wording and INDEC calls the yearly change not significant. 11.5% vs ~20% is against the previous half-year, not the year.

Counterargument

For the critic: poverty has now risen twice and wages have not recovered. For the supporter: no other way to stop three-digit inflation was shown, the inherited deficit set the starting point, and INDEC says poverty is statistically unchanged against a year ago. Both argue from different baselines.

Post angles

Facebook (Croatian) Milei je godišnju inflaciju spustio s 211 posto (prosinac 2023.) na 31,5 posto (prosinac 2025.). To je istina. Istina je i to da je prema INDEC-u siromaštvo u prvoj polovici 2024. bilo 52,9 posto, u drugoj polovici 2025. palo na 28,2 posto, a u prvoj polovici 2026. opet naraslo na 32,3 posto. Plaće po izvješćima još nisu na razini s kraja 2023., a godišnja inflacija u rujnu 2026. iznosi 33,4 posto. Pitanje nije tko je u pravu, nego tko je platio cijenu i mjeri li se sve jednako.

LinkedIn (English) Milei’s record is two true stories, both from INDEC. Inflation: 211.4% in 2023, 31.5% in 2025, 33.4% by September 2026. Poverty: 52.9% in H1 2024, 28.2% in H2 2025, 32.3% in H1 2026 (INDEC says that is no significant change on a year earlier). Wages are reported to be below late-2023 levels, and a Catholic University observatory says part of the poverty fall may be a measurement effect. Stabilisation worked on prices; who paid, and how much was method, is still argued.

Argentina swung between crises and fixes for decades before Milei brought a chainsaw DOGE promised 2 trillion in cuts and the checkable claims fell far short

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