Petar Juršić: ideas and stories

DOGE: 2 trillion promised

8 min read

DOGE promised 2 trillion in cuts and the checkable claims fell far short

Hook

Elon Musk said DOGE could cut at least 2 trillion dollars. At its end on 4 July 2026 its own site claimed 215 billion, and the US government auditor (GAO) found the part it could check riddled with errors.

Claim

A fast, loud efficiency drive without a feedback loop produced numbers that did not survive checking. A chainsaw is not a feedback loop.

Story

All facts below are as of 2026-11-04 unless a date is given.

  • The promise. At a Trump rally in Madison Square Garden on 27 Oct 2024 Musk, asked by Howard Lutnick how much could be cut from the 6.5 trillion budget, answered “Well, I think we can do at least $2 trillion, yeah” (quote and date from search reports; the Al Jazeera piece I opened confirms “at least $2 trillion”, late Oct 2024). By Jan 2025 he called 2 trillion a “best-case outcome” and spoke of 1 trillion (search snippets, NBC; not opened). Lutnick later said Musk was supposed to say 1 trillion (Business Insider, snippet only).
  • The 150 billion. On 10 April 2025, at a cabinet meeting, Musk said: “I’m excited to announce that we anticipate savings in ‘26 from reduction of waste and fraud by $150 billion” (Fortune, 11 Apr 2025). It was unclear whether this was a goal for fiscal 2026 or what was found so far, because the DOGE site already showed about 150 billion. A White House official told the New York Times 1 trillion was still the goal.
  • The site’s numbers. About 160 billion (April 2025, CBS), 180 billion (early June 2025, Al Jazeera), 215 billion as of 5 July 2026 (Fox Business). The site itself says its published receipts are a subset, about 30% of total savings (Nextgov, 2 July 2026).
  • The audit. GAO-26-108615, 6 Aug 2026, reviewed the 110 billion the “Wall of Receipts” showed for contracts, grants and leases up to 7 July 2026. Findings: DOGE did not use its own stated method for most contract savings; for 96% of grant savings it did not give enough information to check the method; 108 of 264 terminated leases were already being ended before DOGE existed; 1.7 billion was claimed on a Defense Health Agency IT contract that was never ended or cut. DOGE did not answer GAO. GAO’s one recommendation (show the data limits) is open.
  • The end. The DOGE temporary organisation ended 4 July 2026 as the executive order set. The budget director, Russell Vought, said “We have no plans to do kind of a closing DOGE report”. DOGE’s last post said its mission “will continue” (Fox Business, 6 Jul 2026). There is no official final tally.
  • Cost estimates. The Partnership for Public Service (April 2025) estimated DOGE actions would cost about 135 billion in fiscal 2025 (paid leave, rehiring, lost productivity), against about 38 billion of direct layoff savings over 10 years; the White House called it an attempt to “sow doubt” (CBS). The “21.7 billion” figure is a Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations minority (Democratic) staff report, 31 July 2025, led by Sen. Richard Blumenthal: 14.8 billion for about 200,000 workers on the deferred-resignation programme, 6.1 billion for workers on leave, plus smaller items (TPM). It is an estimate by one party’s staff, not a committee finding.
  • IRS. The 500 billion is not a Treasury or IRS document. It comes from a Washington Post report of 22 March 2025 (I could not open it; seen via syndicated copies and summaries): Treasury and IRS officials predicted more than a 10% fall in tax receipts by 15 April, which outlets turned into “over 500 billion”. It did not happen: by 28 April 2025 total receipts were about 66 billion (1.3%) under projection, individual and payroll receipts up about 120 billion on a year earlier (Penn Wharton Budget Model, 30 Apr 2025). Treasury’s year-end statement reportedly shows individual income tax receipts up 9.5% in fiscal 2025 (search result; not opened). The lost-revenue warning was a projection that did not come true.
  • Workforce. OPM data: civilian headcount 2,313,216 (Sept 2024) to 2,035,344 (Jan 2026), down 12% (Fox Business, 5 Mar 2026). Earlier counts: about 135,000 reductions by 12 May 2025 (NYT) or 260,000 including early retirements (Reuters), out of about 2.4 million (Al Jazeera, June 2025). OPM director Scott Kupor said most leavers went voluntarily. The White House says federal employment is the lowest since 1966 and saves 29 billion a year (Fox Business). Not all of this is DOGE’s doing; DOGE was one part of a wider push.
  • Social Security. Musk said people “150 years old” are in the system (Scripps News) and posted claims of millions marked “alive”. These come from Numident, the number-issuing database, where old records often lack a death date. SSA’s acting commissioner Lee Dudek: “These individuals are not necessarily receiving benefits.” The SSA Inspector General’s 2023 audit (A-06-21-51022) found about 18.9 million records of people born in 1920 or earlier with no death date (summary via search; the PDF would not open), but only about 0.1% of the 67 million beneficiaries are over 100 (ABC/GMA). Improper payments were about 1% of benefits, mostly overpayments to living people (July 2024 IG report, per GMA).
  • The congressman. Rep. Blake Moore (R-Utah), co-leader of the House DOGE caucus, said around 5 June 2025: “Most everybody knew Elon was exaggerating to what he could do … One time, he said $2 trillion, he was going to find. It’s a massive exaggeration” (Yahoo/Business Insider, 7 Jun 2025).

Sources

Check before posting

  • Washington Post IRS story (22 Mar 2025), Madison Square Garden transcript, Treasury FY2025 statement, SSA IG PDF and the Senate PSI report itself were not opened; facts from them are marked above as secondhand.
  • No single authoritative net-savings figure exists. Do not give one.
  • The USAID death estimate stays out.
  • Resolved 2026-11-04: end date (4 July 2026, confirmed by Nextgov and Fox Business), 21.7 billion (Senate PSI Democratic staff report), IRS 500 billion (a projection from a Post report, not realised), SSA claim (Numident, not payments), final tally (none; DOGE site says 215 billion, GAO found the part it checked unreliable), congressman (Blake Moore, about the 2 trillion, not the 150 billion).

Counterargument

Supporters say some waste was real and the bureaucracy resists any cut. The White House says headcount is the lowest since 1966 and that the work “made some really important strides” (Vought). Some of the 215 billion may be real; GAO checked only 110 billion of it. The fair version: you still have to measure the cut. The honest line is that DOGE removed the measurement before it cut.

Post angles

Facebook (Croatian)

  • DOGE je obećao najmanje 2 bilijuna dolara uštede. Njegova stranica na kraju tvrdi 215 milijardi, a američki državni revizor (GAO) za dio koji je mogao provjeriti kaže da je pun pogrešaka. Kad nema povratne petlje, brzina nije znanje.
  • Tko bi kod nas provjerio nečiju “racionalizaciju”?

LinkedIn (English)

  • DOGE: promised at least $2tn in cuts, closed on 4 July 2026 with a site claiming $215bn and no final report. GAO found the $110bn it examined to be incorrect or unsupported in key parts. Fast cuts without measurement are not feedback, they are noise.
  • The strongest counter: bureaucracy does resist reform, and some savings are real. The fair version is that you still need to measure the cut.

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