Petar Juršić: ideas and stories

Who profits from the Ukraine war

5 min read

Defence firms are earning more from the Ukraine war, but profit alone does not explain EU defence policy

Hook

Russia invaded Ukraine, and Europe is rearming. European arms makers’ revenue grew 13% in 2024. Nothing found shows that profit is why.

Claim

Russia invaded Ukraine; that is not in dispute. The question here is narrower: who gains, and whether those gains drive EU policy. The sources found show gains and security reasons, and show no link from profit to policy decisions.

Documented gains:

  • SIPRI Top 100 (published 1 Dec 2025, covers 2024): 23 of the 26 European companies in the list (excluding Russia) increased arms revenue; combined +13% to $151 billion. Four German firms +36% to $14.9 billion. Czechoslovak Group +193% to $3.6 billion, most of it attributed by the company to Ukraine. Russia’s two listed firms +23% to $31.2 billion. Revenue is in constant 2024 dollars.
  • Rheinmetall (2025 results, reported 11 Mar 2026): sales +29% to about EUR 9.94 billion; operating result +33% to EUR 1.84 billion; proposed dividend EUR 11.50 vs 8.10; guidance for 2026 sales growth of 40 to 45%. Net profit slipped to EUR 696 million from 717 million (company figures via news coverage).
  • Energy, for comparison: Shell’s 2022 profit more than doubled to a record after prices rose following the invasion. The EU adopted a windfall contribution on fossil fuel firms, and on 28 December 2022 Exxon’s German and Dutch subsidiaries sued the Council over it at the EU General Court (Irish Times).

Government spending, so the incentive exists: EU-27 defence spending was EUR 343 billion in 2024, 1.9% of GDP, +19% on 2023 (EDA, EPRS); EUR 418 billion in 2025, +20% (EDA Defence Data 2025/26). The SAFE instrument offers EUR 150 billion in loans, and 19 member states have asked for a loan (EPRS).

What the evidence says about motive:

  • Officials give security reasons openly, for example Commissioner Kubilius: “we need to outproduce Russia”.
  • Industry access to policy is documented for earlier years: Corporate Europe Observatory (an advocacy group, 2017) reports that the 2015 Group of Personalities that shaped the EU defence research agenda included CEOs of MBDA, Indra, Saab, Airbus, BAE and Leonardo, and that DG GROW held 37 meetings with the arms industry on the Preparatory Action from 2013 to 2016. The top ten arms firms’ declared EU lobbying budget rose from EUR 2.8 million to EUR 5.6 million between 2012 and 2017. This shows access, not that anyone was swayed.

What cannot be shown: that lobbying or profit caused the 2022 to 2026 decisions. No investigation of lobbying on SAFE or ReArm Europe was found, and absence from a search is not proof that none exists. Both can be true: governments buy because they feel threatened, and firms gain because they are the ones selling.

Story

The Czechoslovak Group, which grew 193% in a year and credits most of its revenue to Ukraine, benefited from the Czech Ammunition Initiative, a government scheme to source shells for Ukraine. Here a security decision and a company’s gain are the same event.

Sources

Check before posting

  • Rheinmetall’s own annual report; the CNBC page shows EBIT of EUR 1.68 billion, so the EUR 1.84 billion operating result comes from the company release via other coverage.
  • The Shell and RTE figures (record 2022 profit, about $39.9 billion) were not opened here.

Counterargument

Rearming is a response to a real invasion and to doubt about US commitment. Profits are a by-product of that need. Saying “war profiteering drives policy” would excuse Russia and imply a conspiracy the sources do not show.

Post angles

Facebook (Croatian) Rusija je napala Ukrajinu, to nije sporno. Pitanje je tko na tome zarađuje. Europske tvrtke za oružje povećale su prihod za 13 posto u 2024., njemačke za 36 posto, a češka CSG skoro tri puta. To je dokumentirano. Ali nitko nije pokazao da je profit razlog zašto EU naoružava. Mogu biti istinite obje stvari: vlade kupuju jer se osjećaju ugroženo, a tvrtke zarađuju jer prodaju. Zato je važno da se javno vidi tko sjedi za stolom kad se to odlučuje.

LinkedIn (English) Russia invaded Ukraine, and Europe is rearming. Europe’s arms makers grew revenue 13% in 2024 (SIPRI): Germany’s four listed firms +36%, Czechoslovak Group +193%. EU defence spending reached EUR 343 billion that year. That is documented. What is not documented is that profit drives the policy. Officials cite security, and earlier EU defence research was shaped with heavy industry input, but no evidence found ties lobbying to the 2022-2026 decisions. Both can be true, and the sensible response is more transparency about who is in the room.

The Soviet economy had real information failures, but historians do not say that alone ended it Companies captured states long before AI and United Fruit is the model

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